Noticias de interés
Piracy takes greater toll on small Persian gulf energy exporters
Fecha de la noticias: 12/03/2020 • Publicada: 12/03/2020
through the Strait of Hormuz can decline for up to two years after a piracy
attack, a new Duke University study finds, but the adverse effects of the
slowdown are far greater on some Persian Gulf countries than others.
"Large exporters of crude oil, such as Saudi Arabia,
see little significant long-term impact. But for smaller countries such as
Bahrain or Kuwait that rely on exports of refined petroleum products in
addition to crude oil, it"s a different story," said Lincoln F. Pratson,
Gendell Family Professor of Energy and Environment at Duke"s Nicholas School of
countries export much less energy than their larger neighbors, so their
exports—though smaller in magnitude—make up a proportionally larger share of
their gross domestic product, Pratson explained. "Even a marginal slowdown
in energy shipping will therefore be more significant to them," he said.
If outgoing tanker traffic from Bahrain drops by just one
vessel a year following a piracy attack, that country may experience a 1.6%
reduction in its gross
domestic product (GDP), the new study suggests.
Kuwait may see a .67% drop in its GDP if its annual export traffic drops by one
reliance on exports of gasoline, diesel fuel and other refined petroleum
products adds to the countries" vulnerability.
"Crude oil is a more resilient export
commodity because only a few regions produce it. If prices rise because of
security concerns, demand remains strong. But there are nearly 700 refineries
worldwide, so when costs for refined petroleum products from the Persian Gulf rise due to piracy, importers can
turn to other sources or opt to increase their own domestic production,"
said Jun U. Shepard, a Ph.D. student in Earth and Ocean Sciences at the
Nicholas School and an Energy Data Analytics Fellow at the Duke University
either case, Bahrain and Kuwait risk losing market share that may not be
recovered for years," Shepard said.
the impacts of piracy on Bahrain and Kuwait"s energy exports is important, she
added, "not only because we still very much rely on these products, but
because the Persian Gulf countries are petrostates that rely on their energy
exports as a source of revenue to buy food and other goods that they can"t
produce on their own."
Bahrain and Kuwait can"t continue doing this, it could trigger geopolitical
instability and civil unrest in the region, which we want to avoid,"
Shepard said. "It could also increase the volatility of the global
transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources."
and Pratson published their peer-reviewed paper March 3 in the journal Energy Policy. They based their findings on a
statistical analysis of seven years of data, from 2010 to 2017, on energy
exports transported from Persian Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz.
a third of the world"s annual supply of energy exports flows through the Strait
of Hormuz, which provides the only passage from the Persian Gulf to the open
ocean. Bordered by Iran to the north and the United Arab Emirates to the south,
the 22-mile-wide strait is a flashpoint for geopolitical conflict and a hotbed
of maritime piracy.
than 750 hijacking attempts occurred in and around the strait from 2010 to
2017, the new study shows. Shipping traffic through the strait declined by 7.5
vessels a year, on average, for up to two years following each incident.
"Maritime piracy in the strait is a kind of low-grade
chronic impact on the flow of energy sources to the rest of the world. Past studies have looked at
its effect on trade, but this is the first study to examine its impacts on the
Persian Gulf countries themselves," Pratson said. "And what we find
is that its impact is selective."
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